ISW Russia Analyst Riley Bailey and Frederick Kagan examine how Russia has exploited the lack of US security aid to seize the theater-wide intiative in Ukraine.

Current US policy bans Ukraine from using US-provided weapons in Russia, severely hindering Ukraine's defense against Russia's renewed invasion in Kharkiv Oblast.

ISW Russia Fellow Nataliya Bugayova's testimony before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe from May 16, 2024.

By Dan Blumenthal, Frederick W. Kagan, Jonathan Baumel, Cindy Chen, Francis de Beixedon, Logan Rank, and Alexis Turek



By Pieter Garicano, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

Latest from ISW

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 27, 2024

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly called on member states to lift their prohibitions against Ukraine using Western-provided weapons to strike within Russian territory. The NATO Parliamentary Assembly adopted a declaration on May 27 calling for NATO states to support Ukraine's "international right" to defend itself by lifting "some restrictions" on Ukraine's use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory. The declaration also calls for member states to accelerate their deliveries of critical weapons to Ukraine, and more than 200 representatives of NATO member states supported the declaration.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 26, 2024

Russian forces are reportedly concentrating forces of unspecified size in western Belgorod Oblast near the border with Ukraine, likely to fix and draw Ukrainian forces to the area and prepare for offensive operations that aim to expand the Russian foothold in the international border area in northeastern Ukraine. Western officials continue to publicly debate Ukraine's right to use Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia amid Russian efforts to persuade the West to continue its self-imposed limitations and divide the NATO alliance.

Iran Update, May 26, 2024

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 98th Division continued clearing operations in “the heart of Jabalia” on May 26. Hamas falsely claimed to have captured IDF soldiers in Jabalia refugee camp on May 25. The IDF Givati Brigade withdrew from eastern Rafah on May 26, according to Israeli media.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 25, 2024

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive, although Russian forces are likely attempting to bring the Northern Grouping of Forces up closer to its reported planned end strength before possibly intensifying offensive operations in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 24 that Ukrainian forces are pushing Russian forces back from Ukrainian defenses in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces established "combat control" over an unspecified section of the border where Russian forces had initially crossed into northern Kharkiv Oblast following the start of Russian offensive operations on May 10.

Iran Update, May 25, 2024

The IDF is moving “more deliberately” in Rafah, according to Israeli officers who recently left Rafah who spoke to the New York Times on May 25. The officers said that the IDF is using “less airpower and artillery, and fewer, smaller bombs,” which forces Israeli soldiers to clear urban areas on foot. An Israeli reserve soldier said that some Israeli forces are working near the border and others are moving into Rafah’s outskirts. This comment is largely consistent with CTP-ISW's current control of terrain assessment of reported Israeli clearing operations.